Fact 1: We aren’t going to do anything beyond loud noises (and Russia knows this)
The Biden all but invited the Russians to take pieces of Ukraine and Putin took him up on it. With the weak response given to his initial moves Putin knows that if he wants the whole shebang the time to take it is now not only because Biden is weak but more importantly he understands the 2nd fact in play…
Fact 2: We couldn’t do anything even if we wanted to at this point. (and Russia knows this)
It takes time to mobilize troops, to gather munitions, to send them places and to have all the logistical means to fight a war. To do it right takes months, to do it fast takes weeks. None of this prep work has been done so if somehow we decided Ukraine was worth fighting for Putin knows he has a MINIMUM of a three week window to finish the job to the point where he would have a fait accompli meaning we would have to literally counter invade. Even if it was possible that we might get our machinery of war moving Putin understands a more basic fact concerning us…
Fact 3: We are not culturally prepared to do anything. (and Russia knows this) Our post Christian ME society is not up to the task of fighting a war with Russia, the people very happy to answer Ukraine’s call to send angry tweets to Russia but when it comes to actually standing up against aggression, hell we aren’t willing to stop people from burning our own cities. Putin knows this but there is something he knows even more…
Fact 4: The only enemy our Military Leaders are Prepared to Fight are Conservatives: (And Russia knows this) Ethan Saunders might have been speaking tongue in cheek when he said: “Our military leaders will run away at the first sign of a microaggression or a misgendering. This isn’t the same kind of war their 2 mommies fought in.” but the reality is that the leadership of our Military has been pretty much at war not only with severing members of the Armed Forces but with those who would normally be the primary candidates to enter the military service. They are ready to go after conservatives on CNN or Twitter but to face Russia in battle? Forget it Of course the Russians aren’t surprised by this because…
Fact 5: All of this is by design (and Russia knows this) Our foes figured out long ago that there was no way they were going to outspend us so instead of trying to outdo us on the weapons side they invested in people, our people, professors to teach our children that America was evil, and/or not fighting for, environmentalists (green on the outside red on the inside) to make the idea of energy production something evil and all kinds of activists to attack the family , religion and all the things that make a strong society. And of course they bought people, pols and reporters and the fruits of these investments both long term and short are now coming into play. They know the US isn’t coming and without the west almost nobody is coiming.
Fact 6: The Biggest Danger to the Russians are the Poles: (And Russia knows this) The reason the last section says “almost” is the Pols. The Pols have a long history of enmity with Russia not only a ton of it in the last hundred years but much more that goes back centuries . The Pols have resisted the EU trying to go after their Catholic faith and impose the culture wars on them. They know what it’s like to be subjected by Russia and have built an Army strong enough to keep it from happening even without NATO. If the Pols choose to mobilize every single dynamic that Putin is counting on changes.
Fact 7: Ukraine isn’t going to roll over either. The Ukrainians hate the Russians and the feeling is mutual Stalin did a number on them and because of that quite a few joined up with the Germans to fight Russia after they invaded. As demonstrated they are quite willing to fight and die rather than be subjugated and they are in a position to make the Russians pay a very high price to take and keep their country.
Fact 8: Protests not withstanding this isn’t going to be an unpopular war with Russians at the start. Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire for a hundred years before the Soviets took over and I suspect most Russians consider this taking back what’s theirs. As long as the war doesn’t drag on too long and the price in bodies isn’t too high Putin will get away this this domestically. if the Ukrainians are able to hold on and make Russia and their proxy soldiers pay this could change.
Fact 9: Most Americas don’t understand how real war works. When my grandparents got here in 1906 it had been 40 years since the last full scale war on American soil and over two decades since the last serious Indian wars. It’s been 50 years or so since the last draft and we have young people whose concept of war are video games where the bodies fade away and you have automatic Ammo and food and don’t have to find a way to make sure your troops can eat, sleep and shit securely. Even if everything breaks Russia’s way it’s going to be a long hard slog to conquer 41 million people dead set against being conquered, particularly when they’re led by a guy who when offered help in getting out of the country answers: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”
Fact 10: In the end the Average American doesn’t Consider Ukraine worth fighting for. In the end there isn’t a huge Ukrainian population in America. There is no tie of religion and culture, there is very little interest in the county, most Americans couldn’t find it on a map. They are not a NATO ally and the only reason why the US has any obligations in this direct is Bill Clinton’s promise to defend them if they gave up their Nukes, proving once and for all that trusting Bill Clinton is still one of the dumbest things a person can do.
Fact 11: Everyone knows the easiest way to hurt Russia but the left opposes it The bottom line is the easiest way to hurt Russia is to ramp up energy production from Coal to Fracking to Pipelines to Nuclear. However the left as already noted is too invested in this so it will not happen.
Fact 12: We don’t know all the facts or the endgame Even forgetting that you never know what the spin from a war zone is from either side one must remember that the same press that insisted that Trump was in bed with Putin and has been lying to us concerning just about everything over the last several years is the primary source of our info. Lord Miles Routledge not withstanding take everything else you hear with a grain of salt. We don’t know Putin’s or Russia’s endgame nor do we know Ukraine’s endgame. With a competent intelligence agency and a strong President this would not be a good place to be in. With a weak president and an incompetent intelligence community it’s a recipe for disaster Doing the wrong thing for the sake of doing something is not better than doing nothing. What’s the best thing to do? I don’t know.
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