Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

To the American Media and the Biden Administration (but I repeat myself) the War in Ukraine is a disaster, not because of the invasion, the loss of life, the human suffering and the violation of borders but because it has exposed to the entire world the weakness, fecklessness and incompetence that 81 million Americans supposedly voted for.

At the state of the Union address with Democrats facing electoral disaster even before this happen Biden is going to have to go up that and somehow try to look strong and paint a positive picture while all of this is going on. I suspect he will do a lot of waving the Ukrainian flag and talking about standing tough against Russia while at the same time doing all he can to keep America from returning to it’s energy independent days of the Trump administration which is the one way to actually checkmate Putin.

In short the Biden Administration needs an out. Fortunately for them Putin is in a position to provide them with one if he so chooses.

I submit and suggest that Putin’s base plan involved the two breakaway republics in the Ukrainian west east but seeing the Biden administrations’ weak response choose to roll the dice for the whole shebang and undo the government install in an Obama supported coup back in 2014.

Stronger than expected resistance from Ukrainians combined with a stronger than expected response from a surprisingly united Europe have become complications for Russia. As I noted yesterday the military facts on the ground might override those problems but if the cost gets to high Putin has one card that he can play at any time.

Putin can choose to make a deal whereby Russian troops move out of Ukraine Proper while staying in the two break away western sections. This would be a Godsend for Biden as it would not only give him the chance to claim a diplomatic success (albeit of a mess of his own making) but it would guarantee that the various corrupt activities that he and his family have been involved with in Ukraine stay off the radar.

Meanwhile Putin would have picked up what he wanted in the first place and would still have an army in a position to try again if he so chooses at a later date and of course the Ukrainians can claim a victory as well particularly as they had no prospect of chasing the Russians out of the west anyways.

This card is in Putin’s hand and can be played anytime the wild card is will a Europe now worried about Putin decide to play along?

If you asked me two weeks ago I would have said “yes” without hesitation it remains to see if they’ve been woken beyond their ability to go back to their days of slumber I mean cripes Germany is rearming (and amazingly that doesn’t seem to worry anyone).

Update: I accidently typed west when I meant east on the breakaway republics, thanks to the reader who spotted the error.