Archive for the ‘elections’ Category

At least overconfidence won’t be a problem for the GOP in 2024 as it was after the two Red Wave elections–and other thoughts

Posted: November 13, 2022 by John Ruberry in congress, culture, elections, News/opinion, opinion/news, politics
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By John Ruberry

I was around for the 1994 and the 2010 Red Wave elections. And for the most part, they were pretty awesome, particularly the first one, when the Republican Party bulldozed the Democrats and captured the Senate after eight years of Democrat control, as well as the House of Representatives, after a record 52-year reign by the Dems. And while the GOP didn’t win the Senate in 2010, the Republicans gained an astounding 63 House seats in what is now known as the Tea Party election. 

After both midterms, conservatives salivated at the prospect of the next presidential election. In 1992, Bill Clinton was victorious, it was believed, because George H.W. Bush ran a lackluster campaign–that was true–and votes for third-party candidate Ross Perot siphoned enough support from the GOP conservative base to elect the Democrat. In 2008, the feeling was that John McCain never had a chance against Barack Obama after the Great Recession market crash two months before Election Day. But McCain ran a lackluster campaign too. 

Overconfidence, bordering on hubris, kicked in for the GOP after those Red Waves.

As of this writing there will be a Democrat majority in the Senate in the next Congress, and maybe, a razor-thin Republican majority in the House. 

Bubba had a come-to-Jesus moment–having Dick Morris in his camp helped–and Clinton after the ’94 midterms pivoted to the center by declaring, “The era of big government is over.” The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996, widely-known as the Welfare Reform Bill, offered tangible proof.

After what Obama deemed “a shellacking” in 2010, Obama, as he does best, talked a good game–but he didn’t pivot. With no hope of getting unpopular legislation, such as cap-and-trade passed by the new GOP House, he channeled his charisma to win in 2012–as conservatives seethed. And ObamaCare didn’t go into effect until 2013.

Besides over-confidence hindering their White House chances, Republicans nominated country club-flavor Republicans, Bob Dole and Mitt Romney, for president in 1996 and 2012, respectively. In essence, their campaign was, “I’m not the other guy.” Yawn.

As of this writing there will be a Democrat majority in the Senate in the next Congress, and maybe, a razor-thin Republican majority in the House. 

Election denial.

It’s time for the GOP to look at what went wrong this year, starting with election-denial. As I wrote in March, Joe Biden versus Donald Trump was not a free and fair election. Big Tech and media meddling in regard to suppressing the Hunter Biden laptop story, in my opinion, was the foremost reason. Richard M. Nixon was the victim of a suspicious presidential election tally in 1960. I was a child in 1968 and 1972, but I don’t recall reading about Nixon mentioning the 1960 race at all during his ’68 or ’72 successful presidential runs.

Deal with it. The Dems won in 2020 and we lost. Move on. If Trump runs in 2024, that needs to be his message. Most of the candidates in close races who said that Biden stole the election from Trump in 2020 were defeated. Election denial is toxic for Republicans.

The big winner in the midterms was Florida governor Ron DeSantis. He’s not an election denier and he has a solid list of accomplishments to point to after four years in office.

The new election playing field.

I loathe mail-in voting, “election season” instead of Election Day, and ballot drop-boxes. But these things aren’t going away. To prevail, Republicans have to adapt and find ways to perform better on the new playing field. Mail-in voting is a good place to start. Increasingly, the GOP is the party of private sector jobholders. Let’s say you’re a construction worker raising a family who is told by his boss, “Hey, I need you at this worksite tomorrow in Nebraska–it pays well.” But that worker hasn’t voted yet and Election Day is two days away. Meanwhile, in Blue Illinois, Election Day is a holiday for government workers.

What if it snows on Election Day? That happened in a Republican area in Nevada last Tuesday.

Shortly before Election Day in 2016, my mother was hospitalized. She had voted in every presidential election since 1956, but mom wasn’t able to vote for Trump, much to her disappointment. We need to reach out to seniors and, gently of course, convince them to utilize mail-in or early voting. 

Republicans need to build on its increasing support among Hispanics and reach out to Asians. The GOP is the party of law and order. However, the media wing of the Democratic Party labels the phrase “law and order” as racist. So Republicans need to rebrand and become, let’s say, the “safety and security” party. Safety and security is an appeal that will resonate among all racial groups.

Tribalism.

If the increasingly frail and mentally feeble Joe Biden runs for reelection and wins renomination–the Democrats won’t have a strong campaigner like Clinton or Obama on the top of the ticket in ’24. And Biden has already said that he won’t pivot, as Bill Clinton did, to the center now that the midterms have passed.

Woo-hoo! We’re gonna win!

Slow down there, cowboy.

Republicans face disaster if they underestimate the support Biden will enjoy from the tribalist base of the Democrats. That tribe will vote every candidate who has a “D” next to their name. In the Chicago area, I live among millions of these people. They might wise up one day. Maybe they won’t. But as Dan Bongino said numerous times in the last week, “Things are just not bad enough yet for a lot of people to wake up from the Kool-Aid slumber.”

And it’s not just Illinois that is afflicted by Dem tribalism. Pennsylvanians chose a cognitively challenged far-left US Senate candidate, John Fetterman, who suffered a stroke this spring, over a mentally nimble Republican candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz. True, Oz could have run a better campaign. 

Ronald Reagan, in his 1984 landslide win over Walter Mondale, won 49 states. But in the popular vote–yeah, I know, the Electoral College declares the victor–Mondale still collected more than 40 percent. In 2024, even if Biden is in worse physical and mental shape than Fetterman is, he’ll do much better, courtesy of tribalism, than Mondale did, in both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

Fetterman, if by some other-worldly convergence ends up as the Democrat nominee for president in 2024, could match Mondale’s popular vote percentage. I am dead serious about that. Tribalism is a tough nut to crack.

There is much to think about and much to do for the Republican Party. But at least the GOP won’t be overconfident in 2024. That might be the best news out of this Red Ripple election.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

A Very Important Piece By Jazz Shaw and three important points

Posted: November 12, 2022 by datechguy in elections
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Big Julie: I'm rollin' the whole thousand.  And to change my luck, I'm going to use my own dice.
Nathan Detroit:  Your own dice?
Big Julie: I had 'em made especially in Chicago.
Nathan Detroit:  I do not wish to seem petty, but may I have a look at those dice?[examines dice] But these dice ain't got no spots on 'em.  They're blank.
Big Julie:  I had the spots removed for luck. But I remember where the spots formerly were.
Nathan Detroit: You are going to roll blank dice and remember where the spots were?
Big Julie: Detroit... do you doubt my memory?
Guys and Dolls 1955

It’s Axiomatic to note that anything written by Jazz Shaw is worth your time and your consideration and this entry at Hot Air is particularly worthwhile

Some day, perhaps even sometime this year if we’re lucky, when election officials in Arizona finally find someone capable of mastering preschool mathematics and they finish counting their ballots, we may know the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections. But that day is not today, my friends. They are somehow still flummoxed by the task of gathering up hundreds of thousands of ballots and feeding them into machines of dubious efficacy. Meanwhile, a different set of election supervisors appears to be ready to move forward with a hand count of nearly all of the ballots. Those officials are facing threats from state Democrats, however. The liberals have gone to court and obtained an order to forbid any such action, though the ruling seems to defy the state’s election laws.

Nothing says “Anyone who thinks we steal elections in Arizona is a conspiracy theorist” then taking four days to not count ballots then going to count to make sure making sure the ballots can’t be counted.by hand. He quotes an AP story on the event and comments further:

Why would Democrats be so uniformly opposed to a hand count? What is the downside of doing it? When the “official” count as tallied by the machines is finished, they can release those results immediately. But even if it takes weeks to complete the hand count, those numbers could then be matched against the machine tally.

In what universe is that a bad thing? If the counts match up (or come within a reasonable margin of error that wouldn’t change the outcome), then all is right with the world and the confidence of the voters will be enhanced. If the numbers are grossly different, then a serious problem will have been exposed and corrective measures can be taken prior to the next election. Even if it leads to the final result being changed, people will at least be able to walk away feeling that the election was fairly conducted and decided.

The answer to this question is a follow up quote from the famous musical Guys and Dolls when Nathan Detroit, armed with the money he won from Sky returns to roll against Big Julie again

Nathan Detriot:  Get on your feet, Big Jule.  I now have dough to roll you again.  But with real dice.
Harry the Horse: Nothin' doin' With honest dice Big Juliec can't make a pass to save his soul.

It’s no coincidence that Republicans won overwhelmingly in Florida and they were able to count 4 times the ballots Arizona has in only a single night. That such an obvious thing is considered “conspiracy” tells you a lot about what is going on.

Three critical thoughts:

  1. What has been going on in this country is exactly the type of thing Kari Lake has been talking about for months and the left has attacked her as a crank and worse from the moment the had the nomination.
  2. Can you think of the Bigger conflict of interest than Katie Hobbs being secretary of state in official charge of this/ It’s Big Julie and the blank dice in spades.
  3. As seemingly everyone with a keyboard seems to be piling on Donald Trump let me point out that if he had not fought back against this kind of fraud and pushed back to the shock of the establishment who have let it go on for years Kari Lake would be a voice crying out in the wilderness objecting to these obvious shenanigans without and the national press would at best ignore or at worst malign her without challenge or opposition.

Solid support by Democrats for Biden and Fetterman betrays their biggest fault–their causes are more important than good results

Posted: October 30, 2022 by John Ruberry in congress, culture, elections, media, News/opinion, politics
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By John Ruberry

The warning signs have been there for many weeks. Shortly before winning the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman had a stroke. How severe was the stroke? We don’t know, because Fetterman, who appears to be morbidly obese, hasn’t released his medical records. 

But he’s a solid leftist Democrat, and that’s all that his party leadership and the people working on his campaign need to know. But can Fetterman perform the job as senator?

His brief public appearances have been filled with gaffes and non-sensical statements, such as this one, made during an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, in response to this question, “I just wanted to check in and see how you’re doing?” Fetterman’s response was, “I’m doing fantastic, it’s not about kicking balls in the authority or anything.” Earlier this month Fox News reported that since his stroke, Fetterman had participated just four interviews with a national media outlet-all with MSNBC. Possibly in reaction to that story, Fetterman reached out to NBC. Dasha Burns interviewed him–and the candidate was aided by a teleprompter. As part of her report, Burns said that Fetterman had issues engaging in “small talk” prior to their interview. There was no teleprompter until the cameras were switched on. 

The left-wing Twitter blue-check media army attacked Burns; Fetterman’s wife said that she should face “consequences” for doing her job, which in this case was providing information to Pennsylvania voters so they can make an intelligent choice on who to vote for in the Senate race.

Fetterman’s campaign says as a result of the candidate’s stroke–oh, once again, where are those medical records?–he suffers from auditory processing challenges. And if Fetterman doesn’t improve, how will he be able to understand what is going on in a Senate committee hearing?

Last week’s sole debate between Fetterman and his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, was a debacle for the Democrat. 

“If this had been a boxing match,” Laura Ingraham said of the debate on her Fox News show, “the referee would have called this in the first sixty seconds.” Fetterman’s opening remark was, “Hi, good night, everyone.” Like his other post-stroke campaign appearances, the debate with Oz was another gaffe-fest for the Democrat. Fetterman was particularly ghastly when trying to explain his position on fracking. His campaign blamed the closed captioning on the candidate’s teleprompter. The network that broadcast debate strongly dismissed that complaint.

But to leftists, none of this stuff matters. That’s because Fetterman is “right” on all of the issues, well, maybe not fracking anymore. Maybe. He’ll vote “correctly,” the leftists believe, presumably with the help of his teleprompter, on the Senate floor. After all, under the protection of pandemic restrictions–they were overblown in my opinion, but I want to stay on topic–a frail and obviously mentally feeble Joe Biden was able to win the presidency while hiding in the basement of his Delaware home. 

If the basement bunker tactic worked for Biden, leftists probably believe, it can work for Fetterman too. 

But we are in the middle of a disastrous presidency, which includes a humiliating military defeat, high inflation, and a likely recession.

Back to Pennsylvania and Fetterman: If it were Dr. Oz who had suffered a stroke, state party leaders, and possibly his campaign staff, would call for, perhaps quietly, Oz to step aside in time for a replacement candidate to appear on the general election ballot. While conservatives of course have core principles, our side consists of many more pragmatists. That’s how we roll. For instance, how many conservatives do you find in academia? Or in the arts? The Democrats are the party of noble intentions. The GOP is the party of good results.

And Dems continue to hammer away on unworkable and unpopular polices, such as attacking fossil fuels, confronting inflation with even more government spending, and conducting catch-and-release so-called prosecution of criminals. Philadelphia’s Larry Krasner is one of the worst proponents of such prosecutorial malpractice.

Which means the hardcore support by the left for John Fetterman makes sense. A twisted sense, that is.

When you vote in this year’s general election–vote for pragmatism. Vote Republican.

As for you Pennsylvania voters–you need to say “good night” to Fetterman.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

Any GOP Candidate Who Does Not Work This Into an Ad this cycle AND next is a fool

Posted: October 24, 2022 by datechguy in culture, elections, Vive L'Empereur
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I don’t care what office your running for or at what level any. Every GOP candidate who is running for any office in any state needs to take this (via Hogewash) tweet and do to things:

  1. Convert this into an ad against their opponent
  2. Demand Their Democrat opponent Explicitly state if they approve or denounce what the president is saying here

Any campaign manager who will not do so should be fired on the spot for incompetence.

It goes without saying that every Democrat either in office or running for office this cycle or the next should be made to publicly endorse or reject this.

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