Archive for the ‘elections’ Category

Two weeks ago I proposed the following IF / THEN Else Statement:

Minister James Hacker: Will you answer a direct question?

Sir Humphrey Appleby: I strongly advise you not to ask a direct question.

Minister James Hacker: Why?

Sir Humphrey Appleby: It might provoke a direct answer.

Minister James Hacker: Never has yet.

Yes Minister: The Moral Dimension 1982

IF Newsom = “candidate for president” THEN AB 957= “veto” ELSE AB 957 = “Law”

By this I presumed that AB 957 was a sure thing because Newsom had just said the following:

“We need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run,” Newsom told NBC “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd in an interview clip released Friday. “President Biden is going to run and I’m looking forward to him getting reelected.”

One must remember that pols are masters of parsing words. What does he actually say:

  1. Joe Biden is going to Run.
  2. I’m looking forward to getting him re-elected.

What doesn’t he say is what happens if for some reason Joe Biden doesn’t run or has to pull out.

Let me remind you of what we wrote a week ago:

Democrats have now decided that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are no longer useful.

In fact they have actually reached the point where they believe that even with the FBI going after conservatives and the online services censoring the right at full swing and their friends in the courts sentencing those who spoke aloud about the steal to decades in prison that the country has reached the point where more people hate Joe Biden than Donald Trump.

This fear is reinforced by this map:

And the lastest pol number are even worse,

Head-to-head in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump has 51% support while Biden has 42% — numerically up 3 points for Trump and down 2 points for Biden from an ABC/Post poll in February, shifts that are not statistically significant.

Or as Drudge put it:

If Drudge is sounding the alarm for the left that means there is a real opening for another Democrat candidate for president, so we return to our original IF THEN ELSE statement:

IF Newsom = “candidate for president” THEN AB 957= “veto” ELSE AB 957 = “Law”

Well guess what happened this week:

and to our original article:

The one thing that might have inhibited that bill from becoming law is that signing such a bill might inhibit a potential presidential campaign by Gavin Newson as it would be such a killer in swing states that you couldn’t steal enough votes to save him.

There is of course always a chance that Joe Biden who has managed to survive so many disasters in his career might still survive this one, but if he doesn’t Gavin Newson has become that much more viable.

Remember, vote for life. It may be your own.

Mother Angelica

Yesterday Donald Trump hit Ron DeSantis from the left for signing a heartbeat bill suggesting that such bills hurt the republican party and talking how he would sign a compromise national bill restricting abortion to 13 weeks.

I can’t speak for others but I’m catholic and abortion is a sine non qua for me. It’s they type of thing that you risk your soul over. I’ve got enough sins that I worry about without compromising myself over life for the sake of a primary or national election.

Mother Angelica, the founder of EWTN put it very well herself when it comes to compromising on sin in her famous story concerning Peanuts. Her nuns were selling peanuts as a fund raiser and were doing pretty well on it when suddenly a new concessions manager demanded an “advertising fee” or as mother put it a kickback. When he threatened to pull the concession from her her answer was classic:

Mother Angelica: Look, if I’m going to hell, it’s not going to be over a peanut.

Here is her telling the story

Now there is no question that Donald Trump’s record on life as president was a great one. Three Supreme Court Judges that got rid of Roe vs Wade, first president to attend the national march for life, there is no question that his record was excellent.

Furthermore I don’t have a problem with incremental change when that’s the best you can do. In a republic you can change laws without educating the public and persuading their representatives to vote with you.

  • If a state has laws allowing abortion to the date of birth then in such a state I’ll welcome a 26 week ban
  • If a state has laws allowing abortion to 26 weeks I’ll welcome & work toward a 13 week ban
  • If a state has laws allowing abortion to 13 weeks I’ll welcome & work for a six week / heartbeat ban
  • if a state has laws allowing abortion up to six weeks I’d welcome & work for an outright ban
  • and if a state has laws outlaw abortion except for rape and incest I’d welcome & work for those exceptions to be removed because a life isn’t defined by the sins of their father.

if your lifeboat isn’t big enough to fit everyone pull from the water who you can while you build a bigger one.

But to retreat and condemn the efforts to save life for the sake of a political campaign, to reject what can be done in the hopes of getting power, to make the life of the unborn child with it’s potential and God given soul and to abandon the soul of the mother and the father an all those involved who risk their souls in this action is to abrogate our duty and to abandon the spiritual work of mercy that is admonishing the sinner because it is these souls that are at risk. Or as Mother Angelica put it:

Those who tell the Truth love you. Those who tell you what you want to hear love themselves.

Mother Angelica

All for the sake of a few more votes? All in the hope that both sides will love you? I think not.

Again Trump is my 2nd choice and if he gets the nomination I’ll have no trouble voting for him vs any of the “abortion till birth” democrats from Biden on down.

But in a primary with a choice between a candidate who has advance the cause of life and one that says he will roll back that advance for the sake of compromise? Well that’s really no choice at all.

The whole point of Jacksonianism is “You leave me alone and I’ll leave you alone. You play fair with me and I’ll play fair with you. But if you fuck with me, I’ll kill you.”

Steven Den Bestie

I have a friend my age, a devout Catholic who was voting Republican long before I ever considered it who I occasionally get together with for breakfast where we talk sports, religion and politics.

He is appalled at what the left has been doing and has been most applauded and shocked by the blatant lying that we’re seeing being presented without challenge by media etc.

Yet despite all of this there is one thing that he’s said blatantly which surprised me, if Trump is the GOP nominee he will not vote for him. He’ll leave the presidential column blank.

I’ve argued that this is foolish and objectively pro-Biden and his answer is this: He believes that if Trump is re-elected the term will be all about vengeance against the left rather than getting things does and he doesn’t want any part of that.

I think he’s likely right about Trump seeking vengeance bit but I think it’s a feature rather than a bug, not because I want political vengeance to be the rule but because I don’t and the best way to explain why such vengeance is the best way to stop the use of government as a tool against the party not is power is to make sure that both parties suffer the consequences of such a thing.

I plan on bringing this up next time we meet for breakfast…or I can just send him this link to Kurt Schlichter who explains that this vengeance is vital better than I do:

First he notes that this is exactly the situation he didn’t want:

I am not for any of this. I think this is a bad idea. I warned people against creating these New Rules where you use the law, or, instead, you twist the law like some sort of Tibetan yogi into unrecognizable forms and shapes in order to trap your political enemies. I am on record saying it’s a bad idea. I still think it’s a bad idea. But what I think doesn’t matter. The New Rules are now The Rules, and it’s time to use them like Eric Swalwell used Fang Fang.

Quickly and unpleasantly for the recipient.

He points to this site which makes the case against this idea and I will quote it at the end of this piece but let’s make the point he is making and that point is all about consequences:

What about all the people who conspired to prevent Missouri citizens or citizens of Oklahoma or Idaho or Alabama or Florida or any other state not dominated by freaking communists from speaking freely on social media? It’s been a while since I’ve been at law school, but I think that the First Amendment still makes free speech a right, and if you’re interfering with the right to speak freely, well, that’s a conspiracy to RICO a felony rights fraud or something. Blah, blah, blah. It doesn’t really matter. You just take the present indictments against the people challenging an election that they thought was rigged, and you add a few facts. You change some theories from trying to challenge a disputed election to trying to keep people from saying what they think about the election shenanigans, and you file that.

They will scream and yell, and I think it will be funny. And I think it will be beautiful too. I am a big fan of symmetry. What they do to us, we do to them twice as hard. Suddenly, a whole bunch of them will be looking to the fed courts to 86 these nonsense cases, and, luckily for them, I think the federal courts will eventually throw out these nonsense Trump cases and create a precedent for throwing out theirs. Or not. So, they may beat the rap, but they will take the ride, just like thousands of good conservatives had to when leftists manipulated the legal system to screw over their political enemies.

emphasis mine

That is the entire point. Until there are actual consequences to actions they will keep happening, and as an example of this I cite the minor miracle that happened in a city that suddenly decided to enforce laws concerning homeless camps that they had previously ignored:

Murals along Commercial Street in downtown San Diego have long been blocked by encampments. Yet at the start of the week, no tents could be seen on either side of the road. The same went for the people who’d been living in them.

“There were hundreds,” Bob McElroy, president and CEO of the Alpha Project shelter, said in an interview. “Where did they go?”

In short once there were consequences behavior changed. Now if consequences make a difference to a homeless drug addict with very little to lose, how much more would consequences matter to a rich pol or a civil servant with money and position and pension to be put at risk?

Schlichter speaks a very uncomfortable truth in closing:

We should never have gotten this far. But we did. And if we ever want to go back, we better roll up our sleeves and be prepared to get our hands dirty because you can never be submissive enough that they won’t try and destroy you.

I’ll be voting DeSantis in the primary as I suspect my friend will too. DeSantis has actually made the best case against the path of vengeance without trying and it’s illustrated by the piece quoted by Kurt noting the other side of the argument:

All across the country, Governors have been quietly using that exact same “broken” system to achieve exactly the kind of victories we all say we want. They have fired George Soros backed prosecutors. They have removed CRT and gender ideology from grade schools. They have banned transgender athletes from taking opportunities away from women. They have banned vaccine mandates and protected businesses from forced closures. They have delivered on wildly popular School Choice programs. They have forced “Sanctuary States” to endure the consequences of their virtue signalling on illegal immigration. And they have fought the worst excesses of woke corporations who would use DEI and ESG to punish those who refuse to vote the way they want them to.

The careers of these Governors and other elected officials across the country are a testament, a stark refutation of the Conservative black pill position on the coming elections in 2024.

Indeed, Ron DeSantis in particular has been so successful at using our allegedly “broken” system to re-Conservatize Florida that he’s accidentally created an entire genre of social media engagement… the “I’m a Progressive and here’s why I had to flee Florida” post.

That’s a pretty good point and those successes are one of the reason I’m voting DeSantis in the primary but that ignores one fact. If we push on the state level but abandon the federal level to the left’s actions then eventually they will have enough federal judges whose primary commitment is to ideology rather than law to upend all of these state level reforms. Already we have a members of the Supreme Court citing falsehoods in opinions, once there are five who are committed to ideology rather than law then the next civil war is simply a matter of time.

I much prefer the DeSantis route and will continue to argue for his nomination but if I’m unsuccessful and Trump is the nominee I’ll try my best to make the case to my friend to join me in voting for him. I’ll cite Kurt and I’m make my points but in the end people are going to have to decide if they want to give whoever is ruling us four more years to use federal agencies to destroy us.

May we choose wisely

…comes from the Tucker Carlson interview, not with Trump but with the Prime Minister of Hungry Viktor Orbán:

Because you know, you can criticize him for many reasons. I understand all the discussion. But the best foreign policy of the recent several decades belonged to him. He did not initiate any new war. He treated nicely the North Koreans and Russia, even the Chinese. You know, he delivered a policy which was the best one for Middle East, Abraham Accords. So he had very good foreign policy. He’s [Trump] criticized because he’s not educated enough to understand the world politics. This is not the case, Facts count and his foreign policy was the best form for the world in the last several decades I have seen. And if he would have been the president at the moment the Russian invasion started, no, it would not be possible to do that by the Russians. So Trump is the man who can save the western world and probably the human beings in the world as well. That’s my personal conviction.”

It’s worth remembering that Hungary is right next door to Ukraine and has a long and unplesant history with Russia to wit:

So if a Hungarian says that Trump is the best bet to avert a 3rd world war, a World War that would likely crush a Hungary that is a now a prosperous nation and turn it into a heap of rubble, I tend to believe him.

If you want to hear the whole thing, it’s here.

Trump is still my 2nd choice behind DeSantis (and I suspect this week DeSantis will show why with his handling of the crisis in Florida). But if I was a Trump supporter I’d be playing this over and over again and pointing to the Trump foreign policy which was one of the most successful of this century.

Update: DeSantis hurricane suspicions confirmed, Unexpectedly of course