Posted: January 2, 2024 by chrisharper in Uncategorized
By Christopher Harper
The great migration from high-tax states to low or no-tax states continues virtually unabated, with the prospect of nearly a dozen House seats moving from places like California to Texas and Florida.
The U.S. Census reported recently that the U.S. population increased by 1.6 million between July 2022 and July 2023, with states in the South accounting for about 1.4 million of the growth. Leading the boom were Texas (473,453), Florida (365,205), Georgia (116,077), South Carolina (90,600), and Tennessee (77,512).
Driving their growth was migration from other states. Overall, California lost the most residents to other states (-338,371), followed by New York (-216,778), Illinois (-83,839), New Jersey (-44,666), Massachusetts (-39,149), and Maryland (-30,905).
An interesting natural experiment has been the state of Washington, which gained tens of thousands of people each year in the last decade. But since enacting a 7% capital-gains tax on higher earners in 2021, Washington has been losing residents to other states at an accelerating pace—a total of 15,276 this past year.
A significant problem for Democratic-run states is that their affluent residents are leading the exodus., resulting, for example, in the drop of California’s tax revenue over the last five months to $24.5 billion below projections. Also, California’s corporate tax revenue is running about 50% below forecast, no doubt partly because businesses have shrunk their operations in the state.
As a result, The Wall Street Journal estimates that California, New York, Illinois, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Oregon would lose a combined 12 House seats in the 2030 reapportionment, which is as many as Florida, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Utah, and Idaho would collectively gain.
But the migration may not mean more Republicans get elected.
For example, retired California public employees are flocking to Idaho with their pension funds and have gained control of at least one town near Boise. The Los Angeles Times reported recently that the city of Eagle, Idaho, has seen an influx of retired cops and firefighters moving to their town, with many identifying as conservative but having rankled longtime conservatives in the locale.
In Colorado, a recent documentary, “Rocky Mountain Heist,” focuses on how the state transitioned from red to blue, mainly because of the influx of outsiders from California and other liberal locales.
When my wife and I decided to move from Philadelphia, we considered Idaho, where I was born and got my first newspaper job. Alas, the concerns of those in Eagle were the same as when we saw the results of recent elections.
I spent my early years in Denver and still have a strong feeling toward the place. Again, however, the times have indeed changed for Colorado!
Even though migration may seem a good development, it’s essential to determine whether the people moving into conservative states share the same principles for effective government.
Now that we’re in a new year it’s a great time to pick up a new devotion to help your soul and the soul of those in purgatory along, the Indulgence Calendar.
Conservatives, I certainly like to think, have great political ideas, such as believing in smaller, and therefore less expensive government, and we believe in aggressively pursuing overall public safety.
And that is where conservative political acumen, particularly in states like Illinois, ends. Much less so than liberals, we are people of the private, not public sector, and we are not constantly thinking about, or scheming, about politics. I’m pretty sure leftists think about politics as often as 16-year-old boys think about sex. In both situations, that’s too much, but conservatives need to have their political radar–and sonar–always switched on.
That is why the unhappy conservatives in Illinois need to begin now to plan for the 2028 vote to call for a constitutional convention. The current constitution, which is deeply flawed despite its relative youth, went into effect in 1970.
While the Illinois General Assembly can call for constitutional convention any time, Article XIV of the 1970 constitution stipulates that every 20 years the question of holding a “con-con” must be presented to voters. If 60 percent of voters–or a majority of those casting a ballot in that election–votes “Yes,” then a constitutional convention must follow. Voters in the next general election can choose to accept or reject the resulting document.
Four years from now–yeah, 2028.
But what about the 2024 presidential and congressional races? And the 2026 midterms? Yeah, they’re important too. But conservatives need a long game. A very long game. Make that a winning game.
Leftists plan for the expected as well as the unexpected. As for the latter, once the COVID lockdowns started, liberals were calling for widespread mail-in and early voting, as well as a plethora of ballot drop boxes.
They had contingences in already mind–and now Joe Biden is our president. Do you understand yet?
As for right now, we can start with talking about the many flaws of Illinois government, generating what urban activists call “street heat.”
A new Illinois constitution can attack those problems.
And there are so many problems in Illinois, which has been annually losing population for ten years.
Gerrymandering. This is a problem statewide. Saying that legislators draw their own districts is not correct. It’s the state House speaker and the state Senate president who drive the redistricting process. Independent commissions should draw General Assembly districts and for all counties and municipalities with more than 50,000 residents.
An attempt in 2016 to change the decennial redistricting process by a constitutional amendment was ruled unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court.
Legislative leaders. Boss Michael Madigan, a Chicago Democrat who is currently under indictment for racketeering, was House speaker for all but two years from 1983 until 2021. He’s been around for so long that Madigan was delegate to the 1970 constitutional convention. One of the arguments against calling for a con-con in 2008, when this issue last faced voters, was that Madigan wouldn’t be around forever. But he hung on for another 13 years. After Madigan was ousted from the speakership–amid a federal investigation–his replacement and the state Senate president drew another gerrymandered General Assembly remap. It was signed into law by Gov. JB Pritzker, breaking his campaign promise to veto partisan redistricting. Forgive me, I know it took me a while to get here, but House speakers and Senate presidents should be limited to single two-year terms.
Term limits are needed for all elected offices. Statewide, from municipal library boards up to governor, elected public officials should be limited to eight years in office. Just before Christmas, Chicago alderman Ed Burke, after 54 years in the City Council, was convicted on over a dozen corruption charges. A quick look at Madigan and Burke’s careers shows that they weren’t able to amass enough power to abuse it until they had been in office for about a decade. ‘Nuff said.
Illinois’ electoral votes. Liberals hate the Electoral College and Illinois conservatives hate that every four years every electoral vote in the Land of Lincoln goes to the Democratic presidential candidate. Instead, Illinois needs to distribute its electoral votes in the same manner Nebraska and Maine do it. The presidential candidate who wins the most votes in Illinois gets two electoral votes. As for the rest of Illinois, the candidate who wins the most votes in a congressional district–Illinois currently has 15–gains that district’s electoral vote. I suspect liberals won’t be on board because winner-take-all benefits them in the Prairie State, but didn’t I mention that leftists hate the Electoral College? Oh, speaking of Nebraska, the Cornhusker State has a unicameral state legislature. All Canadian provinces have the same system. Just saying, but Maybe Illinois doesn’t need a state House and a state Senate?
Cash bail. The most fundamental duty of any government is to protect its citizens. The SAFE-T Act, which went into effect three months ago, abolishes cash bail. It’s bad legislation. Re-establish cash bail as part of the law enforcement process.
Township government. Illinois has more units of government, despite being only the sixth-most populous state, than any other state. Pennsylvania is a distant second. Illinois needs to remove the deadwood, starting with township government, a 19th-century relic.
State holidays. This may seem petty, but holiday creep is a problem in Illinois. Limit state holidays to federal holidays and Lincoln’s Birthday. Require a 2/3 vote in the General Assembly to add a new state holiday. Sorry state workers, you need to show up to work on Casimir Pulaski Day, General Election Day, and the day after Thanksgiving. As someone with a December birthday, the day after Thanksgiving is an ideal one for me to renew my driver’s license.
Rotten schools. Give parents the right to send their children to private schools with vouchers. Establish home schooling as a parental right. According to the latest Illinois Report Card, only 35 percent of students read at grade level and just 27 percent of them are proficient in mathematics.
Too many statewide offices. The constitutional offices of treasurer and comptroller should be combined, and the position of lieutenant governor should be abolished. Place the attorney general next in line when the governor’s office is vacant.
Corruption. But add one more statewide elected office, that of inspector general, who will be responsible for investigating corruption from the governor’s office down to village halls.
Lockdowns. Permit the governor to issue statewide stay-at-home orders only after a 2/3 vote by the General Assembly.
Pensions, the 800-pound beast. The 1970 constitution has a pension guarantee clause. Drop it and establish a non-partisan commission to resolve state and municipal underfunded pension plans. And compel new state workers to pay into Social Security but make 401(k) programs available to them.
I know, Illinois is a deep blue state and I’m a dreamer. But we have four years–almost five, really–to plan for the 2028 vote for an Illinois constitutional convention.
You have your new year’s resolution.
John Ruberry, a fifth-generation Illinois, regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.
