…and there’s more to that poll concerning the Black Vote than meets the eye.

Posted: October 10, 2019 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, elections, politics
Tags: , , ,

Yesterday I linked to a an instapundit post that noted that the in a recent poll 32% of black men preferred the re-election of Trump to any democrat nominee. Yet let’s take a look at the opening lines of the story that contained this incredible information:

An overwhelming majority of black voters — 85 percent — said in a new Hill-HarrisX poll that they would choose any Democratic presidential candidate over President Trump in an election The survey, which was released on Monday, found this sentiment to be particularly true among black voters along partisan lines.

That story is from The Hill, and the headline says: “Poll: Overwhelming majority of black voters back any 2020 Democrat over Trump“. The only problem is when when you look at the actual poll vs the spin of the story it doesn’t look very good for the left. In addition to what Mr. Bernstein spotted there were two other data points that are pretty significant:

  1. The poll sampled more that two women for every man on presidential preference. That’s over 67% women on that pol! That’s quite a gender gap!
  2. Of the black men polled 3% were republican and 21% were independent. That means that if every single republican and independent man in the poll supported Trump then there would still be 8 percent of black Democrat men who want Trump to win in 2020.

That’s bad enough but there is something even funnier going on here: there seems to be two different pools of people being polled. The preference for president question has a sample size of 210, but the poll in general has a sample size of 1200.

Over 1000 missing people.

Oddly enough the story doesn’t note this discrepancy let alone explain it, nor does it touch on the skew in the presidential preference question 67% women , vs everyone in the poll 57%.

I’m sure there is a perfect innocent explanation for this that I’m completely missing that has absolutely nothing to do with the attempt to convince people that the president’s economy and policies might be leading to a historic realignment that could change the face of the American political scene for decades.

After all the media would not try to manipulate the public for political reasons would they?

Sable/Gerbl day 15: Scherzer Rules the Roost, Sale K’s 10 Dodgers Juneau makes it 5 straight. Texas takes Boston in extras.

Posted: October 9, 2019 by datechguy in baseball, dynasty baseball, gaming, online gaming
Tags: , ,

Vikings 3 Washington 1

Max Scherzer gave up 4 hits over nine innnings and scored a run as King Ragnar’s Vikings outlasted Washington 3-1.

With the excepton of Anthony Rendon (2-4 2 2b) Scherzer (W 3-1) kept Washington batters off ballance and even when they managed a bit of a rally such as in the 6th when Trevor Story doubled with two outs and Josh Reddick walked he was able to bear down and end the inning without damage.

His counterpart Sean Newcomb (L 0-2) for a time managed to do the same, pitching out of a man on 2nd no out situation in the 1st, a bases loaded two out jam in the 2nd and another bases loaded jam in the 4th until he finally cracked in the fifth. Juan Segura and Kentel Marte walked to start the inning and Eduardo Escobar singled to left scoring Segura for a 1-0 game. Wilson Ramon singled to right loading the bases and after Ramon Laureano K’d Elias Diaz hit a ball back to the mound that Newcomb was able to stop but couldn’t make a play on. That single socred Marte and made it 2-0 befor Newcomb retired Rizzo and Scherzer to stop the bleeding.

Those two would be all Max would need as he killed another potential rally with a pickoff of Billy Hamilton after a leadoff walk in the 7th and by the time Washington finally got on a board with a solo Shot by Josh Reddick to start the 9th the Vikings had already added a run off of reliever Brad Hand on a two out Whit Merrified double scoring Scherzer making it too little much too late.

Notes: Scherzer walked twice along with a hit raising his batting avg to .300 this season. Bobby Poyner came out of the game after 2/3 of an inning of perfect relief complaining about arm soreness and was subsequently sent to the minors. The Vikings went 4-15 with runners in scoring position while Washington went 0-6. It will be Noah Syndergaard (0-2) vs Carlos Martinez (1-0) for Washington to finish.

Rivertown 6 LA 2

Rivertown struck for 3 in the 1st and Chris Sale struck out 10 in 9 innings as Rivertown defeated LA 6-2.

Clayton Kershaw (L 1-3) troubles began right away with a leadoff double to Lorenzo Cain followed by a one out walk to Paul Goldschmidt. After Nelson Cruz forced Goldschmidt Marcell Ozuna fly to left carried just far enough to clear the fence and Rivertown was up 3-0.

LA got one back of Christ Sale (W 3-1) David Freese singled and Kike Hernandez was grazed by a sale fastball. With one out Matt Kemp delived a single to left scoring Freese and sending Hernandez to 2nd. It looked like a big inning was brewing but Max Muncy’s liner was right at Ozuna and Chris Taylor’s fly to left was just a few feet short of the wall so the game remained 3-1.

In the 3rd Rivertown struck again. Goldschmidt walked again and this time Cruz drove a ball to left center scoring him all the way from 1st. After a pair of gournd outs Yadier Molina doubled almost to the same spot scoring Cruz from 3rd easily and Rivertown was up 5-1.

Kiki Hernandez struck back at once in the bottom taking Sale deep to left center to make it 5-2 but that would be as close as they would get as LA would only manage two hits and one walk for the rest of the game off Sale whose fastball and changeup baffled LA’s bats to the point where Matt Carpenter’s 6th inning single scoring Lorenzo Cain who doubled with two outs off Ross Stripling was just window dressing.

Notes: Dodger Ace Clayton Kershaw’s 5 earned runs in 3 innings raised his ERA to 6.64. The team has a winning record in games he hasn’t started. Ozuna’s homer was his 1st of the season. Dodger Reliver Stripling came to the plate for the 1st time this season and singled off Sale Lorenzo Cain went 4-5 with a pair of doubles and two runs scored. The Dodgers will throw Walker Buehler (0-1) in the finale He will face Aaron Nola (2-0 )

Juneau 8 NY 1

Mookie Betts hit two home runs and Miles Mikolas went all the way as Juneau crushed the NY Yankees 8-1 for their fifth straight win.

Luis Severino (L 1-2) Got deep in a hole three batters in. Andrew Benintendi led off the game with a triple Andrelton Simmons singled to drive him in and Mookie Betts hit the 1st fastball he saw 478 feet to right center and the score was 3-0

The Yankees couldn’t answer till the 4th Gleyber Torres singled to start things off and was erased on a force play on Aarond Judge. Didi Gregorius singled to right and Judge raced to 3rd ahead of the thow allowing Gregorius to reach 2nd and giving the Yanks two men in scoring position with only one out and the tying run at the plate. Alas for the Yanks while Giancarlo Stanton’s grounder to short scored Judge, Miles Mikolas (W 1-2) struck out Neil Walker to keep the lead 3-1.

It didn’t stay that way long, Benintendi walked to start the fifth, Simmons singled and Mookie Betts Doubled to left scoring Benintendi and getting Simmons to 3rd with nobody out but Shohei Ohtani fly to center turned into a double play when Brett Gardner’s bullet to the plate beat Simmons keeping the score 4-1.

This was Boston’s big chance and it looked like they would take advantage of it. With one out in the bottom of the fifth Austin Romine doubled and Greg Bird singled to right sending him to 3rd. Once again the tying run was at the plate with only one out and once again Mikolas came through k’ing Aaron Hicks and coaxing a force out from Torres to end the inning.

They might have come back but with Matt Chapman on 3rd (single) and Harrison Bader on 2nd (walk) and two outs their defense failed him. Torrez booted a grounder that Benintendi hit off Zach Britton scoring Chapman and sending Baider to 3rd and Britton and Romine allowed a passed ball scoring Bader making it six to one.

At that point it didn’t matter Mikolas would retire the last 12 in a row so solo shots by Betts and Othani were just afterthoughts.

Notes: In addition to his solo shot Ohtani stole his 1st base after a walk in the 7th. Yankees relieveers Dellin Betances (Ohtani) and Zach Britton (Betts) both gave up solo shots for their only earned run Betances ERA went up to 0.66 but Britton’s DROPPED to 16.20 Benintendi and Betts combined for 4 hits 4 runs 4 RBI’s 2 walks 2 homers and a double. The series ends tomorrow with David Price (1-0) against J.A. Happ (0-1)

Texas 5 Boston 4 (10 innings)

Michael Brantly hit an extra inning homer and Keone Kella pitched two scoreless innings for the win as Texas won for the 3rd time in four extra inning games with a 5-4 victory against Boston.

The Thunder stuck in the 1st off of Justin Verlander who after striking out the 1st two batters gave up a single to Mike Trout, a double to Freddie Freeman which scored Trout and a Triple to Javier Baez scoring Freeman to make it 2-0.

In the 2nd Boston came back Alex Bregman singled. Corey Kluber retired the next two the 2nd on a fielder’s choice that replaced Bregman with Ronald Acuna Jr. for J.T. Realmuto who took a ball over the green monster to tie things up.

In the 3rd the Thunder hit Verlander again, Trout walked with one out and with two outs Javier Baez doubled him in and Francisco Lindor followed with a Triple and it was 4-2 while in the bottom of the inning Christian Yelich hit a solo shot to center and the lead was 4-3.

There it stayed until the eighth when again with two out Alex Bregman hit a shot out to center off of Raisel Iglesias tying things up at 4 and taking Verlander off the hook. Verlander retired the 1st two in the 9th before giving way to Brandon Morrow L (1-1) who would retire the final man in the innings before giving up that shot in the 10th.

Notes: Keone Kela (W 1-1) retired all six men he faced for the win. Verlander struck out 15 fifteen texas batters in his no decision. 8 of the games nine runs were scored with two outs. This was Texas’s 4th extra inning game this season. Texas has played as many extra inning games as any other two teams in the league combined this season. It will be the battle of the even records in the finale as 1-1 Zach Grenkie of Texas faces the 1-1 Blake Snell.

What I saw during a side visit at CPAC 2018 to a Pinball Spot in Bethesda is finally showing in polling…

Posted: October 9, 2019 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, economy, elections, politics, special events
Tags: , ,

In 2018 I was at CPAC with my sons when the younger seeing that I was, as usual, driving myself to a ridiculous point suggested doing something different, so we went on a little trip to a pinball place in Bethesda where I found what I thought was the most significant interview of the trip.

and wrote why this interview was so significant

Now a person like my self who has covered angry mobs last year, and is constantly bathed in the political fight, not to mention the media narrative of absolute Trump / GOP hatred and constantly in the company of activists both at home and at CPAC,  might expect a Democrat woman of color living in a blue state to give answers fitting the us vs them narrative, particularly if filmed and in the presence of her friends.
She did not.
She gave the President mixed marks, complemented him on keeping campaign promises that he made to his people, noted that as a Democrat she’d like to see some more moderate moves. Her answers had none of the rancor or the division that the media has pushed on us for the year or that I’ve seen from angry activists. They were completely reasonable answers that would not have been out of place several decades ago in a saner time when I remembered people could disagree and get along. In other words they reflected who she is, a normal American trying to get by whose primary focus is real life instead of manufactured outrage.

Remember this was 2018, Mueller was still out there, plenty of people thought there was lot of “there” there. Stormy Daniels was still out there as was the creepy porn lawyer. In fact we were still in the pre-Kavanaugh era. In other words the entire spectacle had not yet blown up on the left.

This interview, given in public on film in front of friends made me draw two conclusions, the second being the most significant

  1. Despite what our media friends are trying to sell us, Regular Democrats, even democrats in a blue place like Maryland are not wedded to the Peloxi/CNN/MSNBC line and are seeing this president for what he is rather than what they are being told he is.
  2. People like Lea are winnable and the media narrative is all about convincing us she is not.

When we got back to CPAC I couldn’t wait to upload the video and rushed to tell every person I ran into that this was incredibly important and tremendously significant. Nobody seemed to care, we were in the CPAC bubble which meant all eyes were on the pols and the activists there, not to mention the President’s upcoming speech. The idea that this might be a signal of an opening to the black community for the President and the opposition of blacks to the president might be softer than other think was something totally off everyone’s radar.

Not anymore:

From David Bernstein at Instapundit

BUT MUH NARRATIVE: 32% of African American men would vote for Donald Trump over a generic Democratic nominee.130

Well what do you know, I guess this info is out of the bubble now, and if it’s true then the danger to the Democrats goes well beyond this election.

But there is more to this poll story than meets the eye that doesn’t bode well for the left, but that’s a story for tomorrow’s post.

Impeachment Strategy (UPDATE: Letter)

Posted: October 8, 2019 by julietteochieng in Always look at the bright side of Trump, elections, politics, war
Tags: , , , , ,

Image result for tug of war

by baldilocks

I heard that one of President Trump’s lawyers sent the House a letter which basically says “hell naw we ain’t playing your impeachment inquiry games.” I read only part of the letter, but it really must be spicy, because a lot of anti-Trump partisans are wailing about it.

When this whole thing started, someone on Twitter offered this as an exclusive photo of the anonymous “whistle-blower.”


I shared it and got a lot of laughs, but the thing is this: it is probable that Donald Trump set this soap opera into motion and did so on purpose. What follows is my theory on how it went down.

Last week, it was reported that Secretary of State Pompeo was sitting in on the call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky.

After the call – or maybe before – the president tells Pompeo to get one of the latter’s people to drop some bait about the call in the presence of the right person — someone who is likely to spill the beans to the Democratic Party honchos.

This gets done and thus is born the “whistle-blower,” who so is excited about it that she doesn’t bother with the whistle-blower procedure. Instead, she runs to Congress in order pass the bait along to the other fish — especially to Adam Schiff — and they, of course, swallow it. What about the change to the whistle-blower statute regarding first-hand information? Trump changed that.

Why would President Trump do this? Simple. He knows that the Democrats have been after him since he announced his candidacy; they pre-conjured a reason for his impeachment, for Heaven’s sake. Therefore, he is forcing an impeachment at the time of his choosing rather than theirs.

I don’t think the Democrats wanted to begin the procedure this long before the 2020 presidential election. Remember that Nancy Pelosi didn’t want this to happen right now; she comprehends strategy even if it’s a dim vestige of comprehension. But her caucus isn’t even that bright. They want Trump gone NOW and Pelosi had to do what they wanted.

And President Trump knew that this is how it would probably go.

So, voila! The impeachment inquiry was conjured, appeasing Pelosi’s idiot caucus, without messing up the intended timeline. She wants to file formal articles of impeachment months from now, hoping that the procedure will last until the time of the election, causing the president to lose. Therefore, it is in Donald Trump’s best interest to have them do it as soon as possible.

What the Democrats hope is this: that a goodly chunk of their supporters don’t know that an impeachment inquiry means jack squat and that the president is not required to participate in it.

It’s a good bet.

UPDATE: Here’s the full letter read aloud. It’s spicy alright. 

The wailers are wailing mostly about the language of the letter. It’s in plan, blunt English rather than in lawyer-ese. Probably dictated by the non-lawyer who sits in the Oval Office. Good.

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng has been blogging since 2003 as baldilocks. Her older blog is here.  She published her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game in 2012.

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Update: the 1st Instalanche at the new host. Hi all, nice to see you here, hope you like the faster load speed and the similar design, we’re still moving posts over but we’re going full speed, take a peek around, learn about the new gender of “traitor”, notice the Pence pivot on impeachment, and if you have an extra buck or two consider kicking into my Great Niece’s gofundme campaign as she was made homeless and lost everything in an IDE fueled suicide that took our the condo building that she lived at (full details here)

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