Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

Everything is focused on Iran. Everyone seems worried we’re going to war in Iran. And every time someone says President Trump is a warmonger (unlike President Obama, who was just quiet about killing people overseas), he goes off and does something non-warmongerish, like attacking the firms that ship oil to Iran.

He’s doing this because it really isn’t about Iran. The Iranian economy and government is on the brink of collapse. It’s propping itself up, but there are increasing protests against corrupt regime officials. There are similar protests in Hong Kong against corrupt Chinese regime overreach, and in Russia against election rigging.

War has a funny way of uniting an entire population against another population. Iran is itching for a war, not because it would win, but because it would distract its population from the poor economic situation they live in every day. Going to war with Iran, right now, is that last thing that we should be doing.

Instead, we need to apply pressure to what is propping up the Iranian regime, in this case Russia and China. Clamping down on illegal oil shipments is a start. But let’s take it one step further. The Russian oligarchs and Chinese officials that control most of the wealth in these countries are extremely unpopular. If their roles were emphasized, and sanctions imposed on their foreign investments, it would stoke the sympathy of Chinese and Russian populations.

The other point is looking at emerging countries and tamping down on their future oil requirements. Part of the reason oil continues to exert influence is that every time one country begins to ween off of oil, another emerging economy requires it. If the population of India suddenly started joining the middle class lifestyle, it would place a huge demand on oil that gives Russia and Iran significant influence. If the U.S. began exporting cheap, safe nuclear energy, that would make public transit viable in these countries, and keep oil from coming back in vogue. That’s playing the long game, but its our best bet for a long term win against Iran.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency.

Horace Tabor: Wait a minute! You can’t buy a woman for money.
Mad Jack Duncan: You just try and get one without it.

Paint your Wagon 1969

I must admit when I saw this headline at hotair

CBS: The Sex Recession Is Real And It’s Spectacular

being a comic at heart my first thought was: “Hell every long married man knows that.”

But when I read the actual piece at Hotair

CBS is conflating two different issues. It was not all that long ago that the societal norm was to postpone sexual activity for marriage, even if the norm was not universally observed at all times. We didn’t fret about too little premarital sex and too much virginity back in those days, and yet that norm produced significant fertility booms, most recently and famously after World War II. Oddly, the later expectation of early and constant sexual activity regardless of marital status, combined with the contraceptive culture that enables it, has produced fertility shortages.

It’s the fertility crisis that’s the issue, not the lack of sexual activity. So what’s causing the fertility crisis? CBS focuses on a lack of job prospects and economic growth in both Japan and other industrialized nations, but the quality of life in these countries is better than ever. We have more access to luxuries and information than any other generation that preceded us. We live in larger spaces than ever. Rather than delay gratification to produce families, we tell ourselves — as one Japanese man does in the above video — that he doesn’t earn enough money to support a wife and family. That’s a choice, not an economic imperative.

…that I realized that the entire problem was about math.

I’m a big fan of math, I love how math is inherently truthful, the equation either adds up or it doesn’t.

So let me put things in a simple mathematical context. Except in cases where people are actually swept away in emotion which despite what people see in TV, movies or romance novels is not how life generally works there are two basic formulas for marriage:

(MP ≥ WP) = MM

A formula where

• M = Men
• W = Women
• P = Prospects for success
• MM = Marriage Material

If a woman decides that a man’s prospects for success are greater than hers that man instantly becomes marriage material because he has the potential to improve that woman’s comfort level and provide for any children they potentially can have together. If a man’s prospects are at least equal to hers than that man is considered at least an acceptable as marriage material because combined said comfort level is at least not going to diminish and with their combined potential might even improve

This is the most common formula for marriage, there is however a 2nd one that covers a specific situation

(MW + MP + MS) ≥ EL = MM

Where

• M = Man
• P = Prospects
• W = Wealth
• S = Social Standing
• EL = Easy Life
• MM = Marriage Material

You’ll note that a woman’s wealth doesn’t factor into the equation because a a man is immediately acceptable to most women as a prospect if a guarantee of an easy life comes with him, but this formula covers women whose prospects exceed the norm and especially those who exceed the norm by a high amount and thus are assured of comfort already. As a rule such a woman wants to marry a man who has at least enough wealth and prospects to make an easy life for himself without her (Think Giselle and Tom Brady) but now with comfort already assured Social standing becomes a factor, in some cases a huge factor. Does such a man have a social standing high enough to overcome lack of other prospects or even wealth? Does he come from a famous family? Was he once a sports hero, a famous pol or have some other standing that would enhance a woman’s social standing? If he does then he’s marriage material.

That’s the bottom line math of marriage when it comes to finding a mate for women and that’s why when you have a culture that systematically goes after men’s prospects and potential you end up with a culture where marriage and fertility are gone. This was sold as a panacea to women as a solution to all their problems, but all it did was create a world where the number of men who satisfy the formula that women want for marriage is shrinking away.

May women be happy with the culture they’ve created.