Posts Tagged ‘mike castle’

Let’s just go by the polls:

Castle was up 15 to Coons

Coons is up 15 vs O’Donnell.

Let’s make one thing clear, Mike Castle is not going to take the vote of any conservative republican from Christine O’Donnell nor will he take any tea party vote away from her. The only person who will lose votes in a Castle write-in campaign is Coons. That’s why I don’t think he will do it. The write in isn’t about power, it’s about spite.

I’m still betting that drink with Trevino that O’Donnell pulls it off, but if Castle runs as a write-in I might have to give him odds to make it fair.

Not because he supports Castle over O’Donnell, that’s just us disagreeing. And the headline is a whole lot better than the Huff Po version (kudos to Allah there). I take exception to this:

When the press comes to them the day after the election demanding to know why “the tea party” would hand a rubber-stamp Senate seat to Barack Obama,…

and later

She’ll probably get a bump and be within single digits after winning the primary, but once the Democrats’ negative ads roll out and the local press really goes to work, it may settle at an eight to 10 point lead.

Now make sure you read the context, he provides plenty and some of his analysis is pretty good but I have two issues with this stuff.

#1. The idea that an O’Donnell can’t win or is causing the GOP to forfeit the seat is not only foolish but harmful. O’Donnell couldn’t win the Del primary until she suddenly could. You win elections by…trying to win elections. You advance the conservative narrative by supporting candidates that support the conservative narrative, some guy on the radio named Limbaugh keeps saying that but we all know that he is just a flash in pan.

#2. If the liberal challenger on the democratic side was so impressive why did he not have a prayer against Castle? Why aren’t we hitting this guy instead of going on about how invincible he is? That is a self fulfilling prophecy.

This is the type of thing that loses races. If the race is lost in Delaware is won’t be because of O’Donnell’s it will be due to the GOP elevating her opponent while tearing her down. This will cost the GOP votes and cash from conservatives.

I do want to back him however on this statement, and those of us who support O’Donnell’s candidacy need to take this next section to heart:

(I know, I know: Chris Christie, Jim Geraghty, John McCormack, Patterico, Jay Cost, Guy Benson, Dan McLaughlin, the Powerline guys, Ace and his co-bloggers, me, and every other righty who’s grudgingly supporting Castle were only pretending to be sympathetic to the tea party before.)

These guys just happen to be wrong this time, they are not foes of the republican party, or the tea party and don’t spent their free time in clandestine puppy kicking clubs hidden under subway stations (Although Ace does bar-tend there on the side).

I will be very happy to have each one of them as an ally on the other 94% of the issues that we agree on and you should too.

This news via Twitter is interesting:

Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.

Your one stop source for all things Delaware has no extra news on this yet, but this totally changes the game in the state.

Why has Mike Castle lost so much popularity? Maybe he was at this meeting:

One day, DeMint had had enough. He rose up in a seminar to question why representatives of the party of smaller government were so focused on earmarks and political fundraising. Why aren’t we talking about reforming the federal tax code or addressing the health care mess?

Midst laughter, someone shouted, “You’ll catch on to the system, DeMint.” But DeMint never did.

And if that poll was off before this news will cement it

“If the only option I have is to vote for those at 250 and below, of course I’m going to do that,” Boehner said. “But I’m going to do everything I can to fight to make sure that we extend the current tax rates for all Americans.”

Earth of Boehner it will be the only option till Jan 6th with the new congress comes around. That kind of talk angers and energizes conservatives…
…and this is simply nonsense:

The best estimates of observers in the state put turnout in Tuesday’s closed Republican primary around 40,000 voters. For Tea Party-backed Christine O’Donnell, the lower the turnout, the better on Tuesday.

This is exactly wrong, the conservative and tea party base that at one time didn’t bother to vote is going to come out in droves. I suspect the urban base that the writer is looking for to turn out for Castle might not be able to vote in a republican primary.

I’d keep an eye on this space the next day or two but If I had to put a $20 down, it would be on Christine.