Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

Depending on where you go on the net or in the media you read a lot of different takes on the war in Ukraine.

You might hear one thing:

it is impossible to ascertain exact information about a battlefield situation on the other side of the globe, but these limited reports indicate that the Ukraine counter-offensive is making progress. If that is the case, we should soon begin hearing about fighting around Borodyanka, a key crossroads that would logically need to be taken by Ukrainian forces seeking to surround the Russian force at Bucha.

Or you might hear another:

The destruction inflicted on the Ukrainians by Russia is vast. If Ukraine still had a viable air force they would be challenging Russian combat aircraft and carrying out airstrikes on Russian positions. I have seen no reports in Western media about such actions.

In cities, such a Mariupol, that are besieged by Russian forces there has been no visible attempt to provide air support, artillery fire or reinforcements. The AZOV battalion left in an ever shrinking perimeter in Mariupol have no way out and are running out of ammunition and food. No soldier in the world survives long without ammo and chow.

There is evidence that a growing number of Ukrainian soldiers in other parts of the battlefield are surrendering

The problem are the bubbles. Both Russians and the West are being informed inside bubbles that do not acknowledge the failures and realities of war. The prime realities are these:

• Any army that either doesn’t have or can’t be resupplied with food, fuel or ammunition can’t function.
• A guerilla force can’t function If they can’t be supplied with ammunition and food.
• Without either a safe air corridor or open and clear roads neither of these things can be provided for thousands of men on a daily basis

No amount of press briefings, internet memes or speeches in front of cameras changes these facts.

If Russia can’t supply their forces with these things those forces will be forced to withdraw or surrender.

If Ukraine can’t supply their forces with these things, they will have to do the same.

If neither can, then it will be a stalemate.

The big difference is that Russia can choose to resupply or relieve their forces from their own reserves, Ukraine can’t without western intervention

The real wild card is that we don’t know the actual war aim of Russia. If it was to secure eastern Ukraine they’ve pretty much already done so and everything else is gravy. They can pretty much stop fighting and declare victory at any time. It remains to be seen if Putin wants the whole thing (I suspect he does) not just because he wants to rebuild the old Soviet/Russian empire but also because Biden and company has given him the chance to achieve a bigger goal, the humiliation of the west and as long as the continued existence of the Ukraine is in doubt that goal is in reach.

Whatever happens Putin will declare victory.

Meanwhile Ukraine has a single goal, to survive as an independent nation. Even if Russia carves out large chunks of the nation if any is still there at the end they can claim to have held off the Russian bear. That’s the bottom line here, I predict that is the endgame of the western media and powers, to wait for this result and then declare it the greatest military victory since Midway. They have painted themselves into a corner so they will have to find a way to declare victory and that will be their best case scenario with the media lionizing Biden for his leadership if they manage this result.

We might be treated in the end to the odd spectacle of both sides declaiming victory but none of those claims will have any bearing on the reality on the ground which I suspect will continue to be unpleasant for all concerned.

In time that will become apparent because in the end reality doesn’t care about anybody’s spin.