Archive for November 22, 2022

GOP: A Pennsylvania problem

Posted: November 22, 2022 by chrisharper in politics
Tags: ,

By Christopher Harper

Winning Pennsylvania in the 2024 election may be extremely difficult for any Republican candidate.

The headlines of this November election focused on the losses by two Trump-backed candidates in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.

But the Republican losses go much deeper than that.

In the useless arena of conventional wisdom and polls, the so-called experts predicted that the GOP would win 10 of 16 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with one seat a tossup. The actual outcome pushed the House delegation to the Democrats, with a 9-8 margin.

But the big story buried in the mass of election analytical outkill was the potential loss of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives to the Democrats, who picked up 12 seats from the last election and haven’t held control of the legislative body since 2010.

Because of a death and a few governmental changes, the House hasn’t officially changed hands, although it’s likely to do so when the dust settles.

There’s mostly bad news when you dig into the voters themselves. The Black and Latino communities weren’t particularly interested in the nonpresidential election, with Philadelphia voters staying away from the polls in hordes.

A Philadelphia Inquirer analysis found the following:

–Philly’s vote count dropped 33% from 2020, more than any other county and the statewide average of 22%.

–It’s not just a 2020 comparison: This year saw a stark divergence between Philly turnout and the rest of the state compared to every federal election since at least 2000.

–Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, has about 133,000 fewer voters than Philly — but cast about 67,000 more ballots this election.

–Philadelphia’s share of the state’s total Democratic vote has dropped from 20% in 2016 to 15% this year.

These results demonstrate that Philadelphia may have less clout than Pittsburgh in the foreseeable future.

More important for Republicans, however, is that many traditional Democrats didn’t participate in the 2022 election, and the Dems still won big.

Moreover, the expected Latino surge for the GOP didn’t happen in Pennsylvania, as traditional Hispanic locales saw a drop in voting turnout. The steepest dives were in heavily Latino cities such as Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Reading, and Allentown, which all saw turnout drop even more than Philadelphia.

Some community leaders said the turnout in Latino communities shows a failure of candidates and both parties to connect with long-neglected voters.

“There’s lots of things to say about how ignored Latinos feel by the electoral system,” said Erika Almirón, a senior organizer with Mijente, a national Latino social justice group that works in Philadelphia. “And it manifests by not wanting to participate, and so if we want those numbers to improve, candidates have to knock on doors, we need resources.”

Simply put, the GOP has two years to turn it around in Pennsylvania.

One factor in the use of the government as a weapon against the Political foes of the left that isn’t discussed is that this is the fruit of the Obama years.

Obama was always a cheap Chicago pol and he used his high position to transform the federal government and the system into the Chicago way where government is used to enrich friends and punish enemies.

Till those Obama types are purged we’re not going to see things change.

In his famous appearance on Phil Donahue’s show Milton Freeman when questioned by Donahue on the excesses of capitalism replied: “just tell me where in the world you find these angels who are going to organize society for us?” This is a basic principle of life that people tend of act in their own self interest. And since most people aren’t angels particularly in government the best way to create ethical behavior is to make such behavior profitable.

That’s really the secret, if you make the rewards of honorable behavior strong enough then the risks of unethical behavior are not worthwhile.

CBS has suddenly decided that the Hunter Biden laptop stuff is real.

This in my opinion is a definite signal that they have decided than in a possible match with Trump in 2024 Joe Biden in expendable.

The real question is will Biden fight (Jill that is) I don’t think Joe has much fight in him, but he does know where the bodies are.

The moment I heard that Nancy Pelosi was dropping herself from the leadership but staying in congress all I could think of was the movie Casino with Hakeem Jeffries playing the role of Phillip Green. I suspect that the new leadership will not make any move that is not approved by Nancy as she, like Biden knows where the bodies are buried.

Personally I think the only reason for this is to remove Pelosi and a fundraising meme for the GOP.

Finally it’s starting to get cold and the heat has been on in the house. That means that the first oil delivery of the new Biden season is coming for me and a lot of other folks.

I get about 200 gallons per delivery which is going to likely run over $1000 as opposed to the $500-$600 that it would have in the Trump years.

If this doesn’t change the voting patterns of folks in New England nothing will.