Archive for May 5, 2009

The difference between polls and math

Posted: May 5, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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I hit polls on my last post, today Mark Steyn in response to Andrew “Birth Canal” Sullivan shows how math actually works:

If you have a million people, 90 per cent of whom are ethnic European and 10 per cent immigrant – and the 90 per cent have a fertility rate of 1.3 kids per couple (the Euro average) and the ten per cent have a fertility rate of 3.5 (the Euro-Muslim estimate), the 90 per cent will have 380,250 grandkids and the 10 per cent will have 306,250. In other words, two generations are all they need to catch up. That’s why cities from Malmo to Brussels are already on the brink of majority Muslim status, as government “Integration Ministers” implicitly acknowledge.

Where Mr Walker gets remarkably incurious is when he coos:

Immigrant mothers account for part of the fertility increase throughout Europe, but only part.

Yes, but what part? Here’s some more numbers. Let’s say you have 950,000 ethnic Europeans whose fertility rate is 1.3. And 50,000 immigrants move in with a fertility rate of 3.5. You’d have an overall fertility rate increase to 1.41, or almost ten per cent, entirely due to a tiny segment of the population. In fact, if 900,000 ethnic Europeans’ fertility rate declined from 1.3 to 1.2, but 100,000 immigrants with that 3.5 rate moved in, you’d still have a ten per cent increase in the overall fertility rate, even though 90 per cent of the population has bought a one-way ticket on the Oblivion Express.

This is why Radical Islam is such a danger, I’m not worried about them getting the nukes from Pakistan, our guys will take them out. I’m afraid that in a generation or two they will own the nukes of France and England.

And that’s before we consider the two other factors: Islam’s numbers in Europe grow through births plus continuing high immigration plus a rapidly expanding rate of conversion.

Europe is growing more Muslim every day. We can debate the speed, but not the direction. I wouldn’t pretend to Andrew Sullivan’s expertise in Governor Palin’s birth canal. But on my little hobby horse I think I’ll stick with my thesis. I’d be happy to take him for falafel at my favorite restaurant in Amsterdam in 2025. And afterwards he can buy me a drink at his favorite gay bar. If he can find one.

I will likely not live to see it even if I wasn’t overweight, but my kids and grandchildren will and God help them

Lies Damn Lies and Polls

Posted: May 5, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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Over and over we are shown polls saying that President Obama is incredibly popular, practically an unstoppable force. Considering we have a press corps that won’t challenge him, comedians that won’t joke about stuff like this and people who are so afraid of being called racists that the conversation stops if he is criticized this isn’t a surprise, but thanks to Tim Blair we have this clip to remind us of what a motivated person can do with polling.

If this is true…

Posted: May 5, 2009 by datechguy in catholic, opinion/news
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…then I can’t see how Notre Dame can’t back down:

After talking to President Barack Obama on the phone today, Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch says he believes the White House will move swiftly on its Supreme Court nominee, perhaps making an announcement by the end of this week.

Obama made no timing commitments to the Utah Republican, but the senator, who has been in the middle of several pitched Supreme Court battles, said: “I’d be surprised if it went beyond this week. … I would think by the end of this week or over the weekend, he’ll nominate somebody. I’m sure they’ve discussed this internally, back and forth for months now.”

What will they say when he names a strong pro abortion candidate? How will they justify it then? Of course if that doesn’t happen then, WOAH!

I still don’t get it

Posted: May 5, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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Last month I commented on why feminists are silent on the what I’ll now call in honor of the other McCain comsoazation on Michelle Obama:

Aren’t we past the point where the main story on a powerful woman is the amount of pearls she wears? I would think so. I wonder what the Reclusive Leftist would say about it?

Well I wonder no longer as she takes on Naomi Wolf on the subject:

But Naomi is no longer a thinking feminist. She is, in fact, so goddamn dumb that I’m convinced The Beauty Myth was ghosted. The paragraph I quote above is followed by two pages of squealing about how fabulous it is that Michelle is a sex object and fashion plate showing plenty of skin. This, according to the rocks in Naomi’s head, represents the maturation of feminism.

Of course Naomi is an easy target, but then again if i was brighter I would have noticed her original post on the subject predated mine by almost two weeks.

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